Bitcoin, Altcoins Dip as Tensions Rise in the Middle East, Crude Oil Prices Surge
Crude oil prices rose amidst growing tensions in the Middle East, which saw the continued fall of Bitcoin and altcoins. For the first time since September 16, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 following President Joe Biden’s seeming suggestion that the United States would support Israeli attacks against Iranian oil facilities, Barrons reports. Other altcoins, namely Ethena, Conflux, and Beam (BEAM), fared worse, each losing over 15% to be among the biggest losers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies.
Crude oil prices proved resilient, surging by more than 4% apiece as Brent and West Texas Intermediate reached $76.5 and $73, respectively. US stock indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 gave up earlier gains to decline by over 50bps each.
Biden’s comments have raised the specter of an intensifying Middle East war, with sources in Jerusalem saying the government of Israel is ready to attack Iran. Traders also see a 63% likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil this month, according to Polymarket. This could affect supply chains everywhere and raise oil and gas prices since Iran exports over 1.3 million daily barrels.
The potential economic impact could exacerbate inflation, hence affecting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Blackrock remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects while arguing that it is a hedge against inflation and supply cap.
Kalshi Wins Legal Battle, Gains Approval to List U.S. Congressional Prediction Contracts
Kalshi, which is exclusively a U.S.-regulated prediction market, gained its first major win in a long-standing litigation matter that the CFTC had entertained. On Oct. 2, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that Kalshi could restart contracts that predict which political party will hold the balance of power going forward in Congress.
The startup, under regulation by the CFTC, had been involved in a lawsuit with the agency since last year. Kalshi had sued the CFTC after it was denied permission to offer the market for election outcome predictions. The CFTC had reasoned that such markets would likely be used to manipulate political outcomes against the public’s best interest.
In partial relief to the company, however, a lower court ruled last month that Kalshi could list contracts about U.S. congressional outcomes. Meanwhile, competitors like Polymarket have taken the lead in the election prediction market, including having data on Bloomberg terminals and placing over $1B wagers on the next US president.
Polymarket’s success was all needed to spur other participants in the chain betting markets into action. For example, Wintermute DEX market maker-is reportedly set to launch a self-owned prediction market in partnership with Chaos Labs.
UK’s First Conviction of Illegal Crypto ATM Network: Olumide Osunkoya Pleads Guilty
Olumide Osunkoya pleaded guilty to five charges stemming from operating an illegal network of crypto-ATMs across the UK, reportedly the country’s first conviction of its kind.
The Westminster Magistrates’ Court case showed Osunkoya had operated a network of at least 11 crypto-ATMs, processing more than £2.6 million between December 2021 and September 2023.
Despite the FCA refusing to register him in 2021, Osunkoya continued operating the machines in various convenience stores up and down the country, converting cash into cryptocurrency without carrying out appropriate due diligence or source-of-funds checks, causing significant concerns about potential money laundering and tax evasion.
The FCA, which has policed anti-money laundering regulations on crypto businesses since 2020, requires such companies to register or risk being discovered operating illegally. In this instance, a court learned that Osunkoya sidestepped the controls with doctored paperwork and an assumed identity, making as much as a 10% – 60% margin on the transactions.
Bithumb Plans IPO on Nasdaq by 2025 Amid Business Restructuring
South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb is planning to go public in the United States via a listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange, seeking to list the company before the second half of 2025. A report by Korea Economic Daily said that this one of the largest crypto exchanges in South Korea had confirmed its initial public offering during a recent shareholders’ meeting and that Samsung Securities was set to underwrite the offering.
It also plans to hive off non-core operations, such as investment and real estate leasing, into a separate entity called Bithumb Korea or Bithumb Investment. This exercise is expected to significantly improve Bithumb’s valuation due to sharpening focus and resources within exchange operations.
Despite the strategic move, Bithumb reported an operating loss of $11 million for fiscal year 2023, blaming the downturn on a sharp revenue decline and a fee-free policy implemented during the fourth quarter. Annual revenue from the exchange for 2023 was $100.6 million, marking a decline of 58% from the prior year.
Indonesia Unveils First NFT Postage Stamp Featuring Bird of Paradise
On September 27, Indonesia’s National Post Office, Pos Indonesia, launched the world’s first Non-Fungible Token in postage stamp form to commemorate the 79th anniversary of the Indonesian Post.
The stamp affixed with the Cenderawasih bird or the bird of paradise, was launched ceremoniously in Bandung, Indonesia, in cooperation with the Indonesian Ministry of Communications and Information.
This is a groundbreaking project, as no other country has tried to do something of this sort. A mix of blockchain and philately will offer collectors an unbeatable digital avatar to complement their collections. The estimated price for the NFT stamp, which shows the abundant, vibrant, multi-colored feathers of the Cenderawasih, native to Papua Island in Indonesia, is approximately $9.90.
According to Post Indonesia’s announcement, the NFT stamps will become available in limited sets in booklet form. This marked the launch of digital stamps, representing Indonesia’s embrace of innovative technologies to issue rich culture and historical heritage in a country that has appealed to philatelists and tech enthusiasts alike around the world.
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Token Soars Following Elon Musk’s Promotion
The Department of Government Efficiency, a joke cryptocurrency based on a few nuggets of conversation between former President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk, became the best-performing token over the weekend. DOGE jumped to $0.02850 before stabilizing at around $0.02309 on Sunday-up over 33,000% from its September low.
The spike came off a promotional boost from Elon Musk, who shared his idea for the token via X.com, formerly known as Twitter, back in August after a discussion with Trump. Musk’s posts saying he was thinking of creating a department of government to ramp up efficiency sent the massive rally for the DOGE token into overdrive, as attention among crypto enthusiasts honed in on the satirical content creator.
Meanwhile, the largest poll, serviced by Polymarket and holding over $1.1 billion in assets, currently resides under Kamala Harris’ name as the most probable winner of the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The New York Times ran a survey that again showed both Harris and Trump neck and neck in some key battleground states, like Michigan and Wisconsin, further personalizing the political climate surrounding DOGE’s growth.
Crypto Trading Volume Rebounds in DEX and CEX Markets Amid September Declines
As most coins rebounded, crypto trading volume saw a strong recovery in both CEX and DEX. According to data from DeFi Llama, Solana, Base, and Sui spearheaded the recovery in DEX networks, their volumes up 40%, 20%, and 30%, respectively.
In the last week, decentralized exchanges on Solana accounted for $7.13 billion of the total volume processed, followed by Base and Sui in second and third place, each with approximately $3.92 billion and $597 million worth of transactions, respectively.
Despite the recent uptick, overall trading volume across both CEX and DEX networks in September remained the lowest since February, with DEXs handling just over $114 billion, down from $172 billion in August. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Smart Chain followed through with the highest month-on-month volume.
That means a constant change in trading volume occurred, showing that some chains have seen growth while others struggle to keep up with their pace.
Jupiter Opens Voting on Disposal of 215 Million Unclaimed JUP Tokens
Based on Solana, Jupiter has opened a community vote on what to do with the 215 million unclaimed JUP tokens from its January airdrop. The vote, which began Sept. 27, will allow the community to decide the fate of these unallocated tokens, which result from unclaimed airdrops or compromised wallets.
The development team behind the project submitted a draft plan to activate stake rewards for the unclaimed JUP tokens in an active staking rewards program for next year.
On the other hand, the community can vote to burn the tokens, which otherwise would circulate with the current supply of 1.35 billion JUP. Burning can reduce the overall supply and may be considered a positive indicator of the asset’s value.
Alternatively, the tokens could be sent to a community multisig wallet. This vote has been considered one of the most critical decisions regarding the future of Jupiter’s ecosystem and, correspondingly, the value of the JUP token.
